Intensifying climate change and growing geopolitical debates around food security are profoundly reshaping the global agribusiness landscape. Extreme heat waves, severe droughts, floods and instability in trade flows are directly impacting food production, prices and availability.
In this article, Bring Consulting analyzes how the climate agenda influences the strategic decisions of countries and companies in the agricultural sector and points out paths for adaptation and competitiveness.
1. Direct Climate Impacts on Agribusiness
Extreme weather events are affecting crops around the world. According to the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), more than 3.8 billion people live in countries that are highly exposed to climate risks, many of them dependent on agriculture.
- In 2023, India imposed restrictions on rice exports after facing adverse weather events, affecting markets in more than 40 countries.
- Prolonged drought in Brazil in 2024 reduced corn productivity in key states such as Mato Grosso and Goiás.
2. Geopolitics and Food Security
Geopolitical instability intensifies volatility in trade flows. Tensions between major producers (such as the US, China and Russia) directly affect the availability of inputs such as fertilizers and seeds.
- The UN has warned that conflicts and international sanctions have increased the cost of importing food in countries in Africa and Southeast Asia.
- Brazil, as the largest exporter of soy and animal protein, has gained strategic prominence, being increasingly pressured by international buyers for stricter environmental commitments.
3. Climate as a Geopolitical Strategy
Climate has become a central part of foreign policy agendas. Multilateral agreements and climate policies are being used as tools of geopolitical influence.
- The European Union, with its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), will start taxing imported agricultural products with a high carbon footprint from 2026.
- Exporting countries are reassessing their subsidy and storage policies in light of global climate uncertainties.
4. Adaptation and Opportunities for the Sector
Despite the risks, the new scenario also opens up opportunities for innovation and repositioning.
✔ Regenerative agriculture, smart irrigation and climate tech are attracting global investment.
✔ Agroclimatic startups raised over US$2.9 billion in 2023 globally, according to AgFunder.
✔ Brazil leads pilot projects for climate risk agricultural zoning (ZARC) and crop-livestock-forest integration (ILPF), with support from entities such as Embrapa.
Climate change and geopolitical developments are shaping a new paradigm for global agribusiness. Countries and companies that integrate climate strategies into their business and operational decisions will be better positioned to ensure food security, attract investment and lead on the international stage.
Bring Consulting supports companies and governments in formulating resilient and sustainable agricultural strategies. We work with geopolitical intelligence, technological innovation and ESG applied to agribusiness.
Contact us and find out how to align your operation with new global climate requirements.
