The application of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the United States, from August 1, 2025, represents a significant challenge for the national economy, but it is far from being a definitive impasse. On the contrary, the measure could accelerate diversification of foreign markets and reinforce the movement that Brazil has already been making towards Global South, in particular China, India, Africa and the BRICS+ countries.
However, the United States remains the Brazil's second largest trading partner, accounting for about 10% of our total exports in 2024.
In this article, we will address the technical impacts of the tariff, the sectors most affected, and, most importantly, viable paths to reposition Brazil as a strategic player in new global value chains.
Direct impacts of tariffs: short-term adjustments
The tariffs mainly affect the agribusiness, the chemical industry and the sector aerospace. Products such as coffee, orange juice, beef and fertilizers are heavily affected, with exports to the US expected to fall between 30% and 50%, according to projections from the citrus sector and the inputs industry.
Studies of the Oxford Economics and of the Bloomberg Research Center point out that the impact on Brazilian GDP could range from -0.3% to -1.0% in 2025, strongly affecting exporting states such as Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso and Paraná.
It must be recognized that the United States continues to be the Brazil's second largest trading partner, accounting for about 10% of total Brazilian exports in 2024, according to data from ComexStat. The bilateral relationship involves complex production chains, so protectionist measures of this magnitude generate relevant impacts on production, trade agreements and exchange rate stability in the short term. Even in the face of the natural movement of market diversification, the weight of the American market is still felt, especially in states like São Paulo, Paraná, and Mato Grosso, where the volume exported to the US is higher than the national average. The 50% tariff increase poses logistical challenges, puts pressure on domestic prices, and demands immediate action from exporting companies. This is why this moment requires not only diplomatic and commercial responses, but also technical strategy and proactive repositioning in the face of the new configuration of international trade.
A new trade geopolitics: the strength of BRICS+
In recent years, Brazil has consistently expanded its commercial presence with countries in the BRICS, a bloc composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and, since 2024, also Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
China, for example, was responsible for more than 31% of Brazilian exports in 2024, with purchases concentrated on soybeans, iron ore, meat, and crude oil. Furthermore, agreements between Brazil and China in local currencies (yuan-real swap) increase exchange rate resilience and reduce dependence on the dollar in bilateral trade. According to a study by Center for China and Globalization (CCG), Brazil is the country in the Western Hemisphere with greater productive alignment with Asia, especially in the food, energy and fertilizer chains.
Strategic opportunities
The imposition of tariffs by the US requires firm responses, but also opens the door to more robust long-term actions, such as:
- Trade reorientation towards Asia and Africa, with greater participation in BRICS, ASEAN and New Silk Road initiatives;
- Access to BRICS+ strategic funds, which add up to more than US$ 400 billion available in infrastructure, energy and industrialization;
- Bilateral cooperation agreements technological, agricultural and innovation with India and China;
- Strengthening logistics hubs in the South Atlantic and port agreements with Africa and the Middle East;
- Use of the NDB (New Development Bank of the BRICS) structure for export financing and risk hedging.
Brazil's role in the new global trade
The global scenario of 2025 requires Brazil to rethink its insertion in international trade with a focus on resilience, productive sophistication and active economic diplomacy. Excessive dependence on politically unstable markets, such as the US, must be offset by expanding multilateral agreements and commercial presence in emerging blocs.
THE BRING Consulting acts in this process as a partner for companies, governments, and institutions, connecting Brazilian production chains to opportunities in the Global South. Our approach combines geopolitical intelligence, institutional coordination, and the structuring of internationalization projects with a focus on medium and long-term results.
The 50% tariff hike imposed by the US is not the end of the line; it's a turning point. Brazil can and should use this moment to recalibrate its trade strategy, expand its base of strategic partners, and consolidate its position as a reliable supplier of food, energy, and technology to the developing world.
With method, data, and coordination, the solution is not just to resist, but to move toward business without borders.
